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PROFILE
M y name is Wilson
Came to this world
on 30th August 1986
Current studying in SMU,
the most HIP school

Shy, diligent and perfectionist as a Virgo
Lots of dreams but not too much action
Wish to lead a nomadic lifestyle

if you want.. try adding me at
kiatihunk@hotmail.com

NAVIGATION
blog
more about me
links

TAGBOARD

CREDITS
Picture:
kao-ani
Coder:
baby.pooh
Coder Blog:
here

Archives



eXTReMe Tracker
Monday, March 12, 2007
X-Gamble Part IV: Toto @ Singpore Pools
Wilson posted at 9:40 PM


What a boring night, really should have joined the Greenies for movies. So what if it's till late and tomorrow is a working day, it's the same for all Greenies. What was I thinking of.. Haiz.. Now alone in the room, looking at the $5 worth of toto donations (1 set did strike 3nos. though) given to Singapore Pools today, it gave the the urge to continue the X-Gamble series.

Toto Prize Table (Source: Singaporepools.com.sg)

Prize Group

Winning Numbers Matched

Prize Amount

1

6 numbers

33% of prize pool

2

5 numbers plus the additional number

13% of prize pool

3

5 numbers

13% of prize pool

4

4 numbers plus the additional number

13% of prize pool

5

4 numbers

$30 per winning combination

6

3 numbers plus the additional number

$20 per winning combination
















Toto is a bit more complicated in terms of calculation as the prize money differs each week and the number of winners varies as well. To simplify the calculation, we will set the prize money as $650,000 and 1, 5, 200, 500 winners per group respectively. Therefore the hypothetical prize amount will be as follows:

Prize Group 1: $650000

Prize Group 2: $51000

Prize Group 3: $1300

Prize Group 4: $500

Prize Group 5: $30

Prize Group 6: $20

For toto the total number combinations will be 8145060. Therefore, the amount of expected returns per $0.50 ordinary bet will be:

1/8145060 X $650000 (Grp 1) + 6 X 1/ 8145060 X $51000 (Grp 2) + 6C5 X 38 X 1/8145060 X $1300 X 6C4 X 38 X 1/8145060 X $500 + 6C4 X 38C2 X 1/8145060 X $30 + 6C3 X 38C2 X 1/8145060 X $20 = $0.2621

In summary, in the long run, for every $1 you bet, $0.476 will be donated to the less fortunate community. For a person who bet $1 each draw, i.e. 104 draws/yr, he will be donating $49.504 per year and for bigger bet amount, just multiply accordingly.

However the question is 'should we still bet on toto'? Ironically, the answer is YES. For $5 a draw and for 60 years, one will only spend $31200. In a lifetime one will just need to strike either a Group 1 or Group 2 prize to make an overall win in the lifetime.

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Saturday, March 10, 2007
X-Gamble Part III: 4-D @ Singpore Pools
Wilson posted at 3:48 PM


It's a Saturday and for many including my dad it's a 4-D day. I've done a brief calculation years before on the expected returns on 4-D and found it rather low therefore was not interested in 4-D. Since today is a free day, have done the re-calculation again and share it with those who intended to start or quit 4D.

Ordinary, System and 4-D Roll Prize Table (source: Singaporepools.com.sg)

Prize Category

No. of Prizes

Big Bet $1

Small Bet $1

First

1

$2,000

$3,000

Second

1

$1,000

$2,000

Third

1

$490

$800

Starter

10

$250 each

NIL

Consolation

10

$60 each

NIL

For 4-D the total combinations will be 10000, therefore the expected amount of returns for every $1 of big bet will be:

1/10000 X $2000 (1st prize) + 1/10000 X $1000 (2nd prize) + 1/10000 X $490(3rd Prize) + 10/10000 X $250 (Starter) + 10/10000 X $60 (Consolation) = $0.659

On the other hand for $1 of small bet, expected returns will be

1/10000 X $3000 (1st prize) + 1/10000 X $2000 (2nd prize) + 1/10000 X $800 (3rd Prize) = $0.58

In summary, in the long run, for every $1 big bet you bet, $0.341 will be donated to the less fortunate and likewise for small bet, $0.42 will be donated to the less fortunate community. For a person who bet $1 (big) each draw, i.e. 156 draws/yr, he will be donating $53.20 per year and for bigger bet amount, just multiply accordingly.

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Friday, March 02, 2007
Huat Another Day
Wilson posted at 10:55 PM


The 10million Ang Pow Draw is out, here is the winning numbers:

05 06 16 17 28 35
Additional no: 14

2 lucky winners for the first prize, meaning each of them will have 5million prize money. Too bad I'm not one of them. Here I am, as supportive of the less fortunate community in Singapore, donating $80 to the less fortunate through Singapore Pools. Probably made a wrong choice to buy at Paradiz, the $50 I invested is really not worth it as the strike rate is pathetic there, I nearly got into channel U news. Saw them outside interviewing some old folks outside the outlet quickly got in through the other entrance. Once I step out of the outlet the reporters went in to interview. Considering that there's no queue and I appeared to be one of the very few buying toto, the chance of me getting interviewed is real high. That draws this year's toto angpow draw to an end. See you next year.

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Thursday, March 01, 2007
Will I be a millionaire tomorrow?
Wilson posted at 10:33 PM


Tomorrow will be a big day for me, a day which can potentially change my whole life. A' Level results? Not my concern. It's the 10million toto ang pow draw tomorrow.

This is the second ang pow draw I participated in, the last time was the Mooncake Festival 10 Million draw last year. Now with a bigger budget, I'm keen to strike. I've set aside $80 budget for the draw this time round. Not that I'm rich or a gambler, afterall this $80 is part of my winnings of soccer bets which I made specially for this draw, so it's not considered money out of my own pocket. Had invested $20 and $10 yesterday and today respectively at 2 outlets at Paya Lebar, gonna invest the remaining $50 tomorrow at Paradiz.

Usually the prize money will be divided by about 10 people, so each person can get around 1 mil. What can I do with 1 mil? Actually in Singapore 1 mil is not really a lot, if I had 1 mil, this is how I will spend it:
500k - repay housing loans
100k - buy a car and maintainence
100k - savings
100k - expend Nomadic Technology
50k - education expense
50k - family tour

See it's actually quite easy to spend 1 million. It's still better than nothing I suppose. Huat Ah!!

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Sunday, February 04, 2007
X-Gamble Part II: The completion
Wilson posted at 11:41 PM


Few days ago I'm wondering on when can I actually quit gambling. As of 31st Jan, I'm still facing a $180 deficit. With my usual $50 bets, it will take 4 consecutive wins for me to win back my capital to quit gambling.

Things often happen when you least expect it. It's quite true in this case. Never would I have expected that I will win 5 consecutive games on 2nd and 3rd Feb. On this 2 days, I actually turned the $180 deficit to a $50 win. However, just before I bet yesterday, I told myself if I won both matches last night, I'll donate $40 to the World Vision Rice Program. I believe that's the reason that I can produce this little miracle. In that case I'll proceed with the $40 donation this Wednesday, and with that I'll still have $10 profit for me to spend.

Money's not the real point for X-gamble. As my bets are relatively small, winning or losing doesn't make too much difference for me. What I'm more concerned about is my concentration and the time. Usually at this timing I'll be at the Gamebookers website, deciding which match to play, 'wasting' up to 1-2 hrs of my time each day. Now, I felt that I've more time to do my own stuff. Just tonight, after having dinner and reaching home at 8+, I've settled my Nomadic Tech stuff, watched Asean cup and Project Superstars and now do the blogging. I have not had this feeling that my time is fully utilised for quite some time and this feeling is just great.

For those gamblers out there, hope you can follow in my footstep to take a break and realise how life without gambling is. The temptation is there and I understand myself that some time it's just hard to resist the 'free money' out there. When you have time, divide the the profit you have by the time you spend on studying match, if you are fortunate you can still earn on average a few cents per hour. Is it really worth it? Time to ponder on it.

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Friday, January 05, 2007
X - Gamble Part I: The First Thought
Wilson posted at 10:13 PM


Woke up this morning, checked the Euro League score using GPRS. Can't really remember what I bet the night before, but subconsciously feel that I had a claypot again. Quickly logged onto Gamebookers to view my bet. Then I confirmed my feeling - CLAYPOT.

Never had I felt so unlucky before, just 24hrs before that I thought that my luck had changed, with a little winning. After some quick calculation, lost all the winnings I had the day before, and lost another $120 from my own pocket. What rotten luck.

Still remember my plans on the 1st Jan, to win $1000 by the end of January with $500. Now, barely 5days into January, the $500 have diminished to $135.50. With this stats, I have no choice but to abolish my plans. While traveling to work, I have this thought: perhaps it's time to quit. Years of betting have shown that betting would not help me get rich, and it doesn't take too long for me to decide to quit, for the time being. So meanwhile, I'll see what the $135.50 can do for me. Either I lose it all, or I win back the $500 and I'll stop, at least contain myself with small bets at Singapore Pools. Today marks my first day of project 'bet to quit'. Wish me luck =)

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