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PROFILE
M y name is Wilson
Came to this world
on 30th August 1986
Current studying in SMU,
the most HIP school

Shy, diligent and perfectionist as a Virgo
Lots of dreams but not too much action
Wish to lead a nomadic lifestyle

if you want.. try adding me at
kiatihunk@hotmail.com

NAVIGATION
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TAGBOARD

CREDITS
Picture:
kao-ani
Coder:
baby.pooh
Coder Blog:
here




eXTReMe Tracker
Monday, March 12, 2007
X-Gamble Part IV: Toto @ Singpore Pools
Wilson posted at 9:40 PM


What a boring night, really should have joined the Greenies for movies. So what if it's till late and tomorrow is a working day, it's the same for all Greenies. What was I thinking of.. Haiz.. Now alone in the room, looking at the $5 worth of toto donations (1 set did strike 3nos. though) given to Singapore Pools today, it gave the the urge to continue the X-Gamble series.

Toto Prize Table (Source: Singaporepools.com.sg)

Prize Group

Winning Numbers Matched

Prize Amount

1

6 numbers

33% of prize pool

2

5 numbers plus the additional number

13% of prize pool

3

5 numbers

13% of prize pool

4

4 numbers plus the additional number

13% of prize pool

5

4 numbers

$30 per winning combination

6

3 numbers plus the additional number

$20 per winning combination
















Toto is a bit more complicated in terms of calculation as the prize money differs each week and the number of winners varies as well. To simplify the calculation, we will set the prize money as $650,000 and 1, 5, 200, 500 winners per group respectively. Therefore the hypothetical prize amount will be as follows:

Prize Group 1: $650000

Prize Group 2: $51000

Prize Group 3: $1300

Prize Group 4: $500

Prize Group 5: $30

Prize Group 6: $20

For toto the total number combinations will be 8145060. Therefore, the amount of expected returns per $0.50 ordinary bet will be:

1/8145060 X $650000 (Grp 1) + 6 X 1/ 8145060 X $51000 (Grp 2) + 6C5 X 38 X 1/8145060 X $1300 X 6C4 X 38 X 1/8145060 X $500 + 6C4 X 38C2 X 1/8145060 X $30 + 6C3 X 38C2 X 1/8145060 X $20 = $0.2621

In summary, in the long run, for every $1 you bet, $0.476 will be donated to the less fortunate community. For a person who bet $1 each draw, i.e. 104 draws/yr, he will be donating $49.504 per year and for bigger bet amount, just multiply accordingly.

However the question is 'should we still bet on toto'? Ironically, the answer is YES. For $5 a draw and for 60 years, one will only spend $31200. In a lifetime one will just need to strike either a Group 1 or Group 2 prize to make an overall win in the lifetime.

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